Turkey production is expected to increase in 2011 to 5.6 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the previous year. The production increase is expected to be due primarily to a larger number of birds slaughtered, as average live weights at slaughter are expected to remain close to year-earlier levels. However, production in first-quarter 2011 will remain below a year-earlier. The incentive to increase production is expected to come from gradually rising prices during 2010 and the expectation of lower feed prices.
In the first quarter of 2010, turkey meat production was 1.3 billion pounds, down 3.3 percent from the first quarter of 2009. This is the fifth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year production decline. The decrease in turkey meat production was the result of a decline in the number of birds slaughtered (down 4.2 percent), as the average weight of the turkeys at slaughter was up slightly from the previous year.Turkey meat production in 2010 is forecast at 5.5 billion pounds, down 2.2 percent from a year earlier. Production is expected to remain negative on a year-over-year basis through the end of the year.
Turkey Exports
Per capita turkey consumption in 2011 is expected to be about the same as in 2010,as much of the increase in turkey meat production will be offset by increases in exports. Turkey exports in 2011 are expected to expand as higher broiler prices make turkey products more competitive. In addition, good demand is expected from Mexico (the largest U.S. export market) as its economy continues to recover from the impact of the global economic downturn.
Total turkey exports in first-quarter of 2010 were 114 million pounds, down 3 percent from the previous year. While turkey exports were down for the quarter,shipments in March totaled 42 million pounds, 11 percent higher than a year earlier.While broiler exports to Mexico were expanding, turkey shipments were contracting. Shipments to Mexico in the first quarter of 2010 totaled 64 million pounds, down 8 percent from the previous year, but the 24 million pounds shipped in March was 24 percent higher than the previous year. Shipments to Hong Kong and the Philippines were much higher than the previous year, but these were some of the few markets that had year-over-year increases.
Source : USDA
