According to the latest Feed Outlook from the Economic Research Service of the USDA, US feed grain production in 2008 is expected to be down from 2007 because of reduced acreage.The June 30 Acreage report showed planted and harvested area to be down from last year for corn, sorghum, and oats, while that for barley increased from 2007. Slight adjustments were made in feed grain use this month to reflect June 1 stocks.
The resulting changes raised 2007/08 ending stocks and 2008/09 supplies, but 2008/09 ending stocks are expected to remain at relatively low levels. Forecast 2008/09 prices for all four feed grains were raised this month as competition from soybeans for 2009 acres is expected to support corn prices in the new marketing year.
Global coarse grain production is up 1.5 million tons this month to 1,069.0 million, as foreign increases more than offset the U.S. decline. World corn production is unchanged this month at 775.3 million tons with increases and decreases offsetting.
World production increases for millet, barley, and sorghum more than offset small reductions in production for oats and rye. The largest increase this month in 2008/09 projected coarse grain production is for the EU-27, up 2.1 million tons to 151.4 million.
Corn production prospects are up 1.3 million tons to 57.5 million due to increased area in France. Projected barley production is up 0.8 million tons to 60.8 million, with better-than-expected yields reported in Spain, France, Finland, and Hungary more than offsetting lower yields in Poland and Germany.
India’s coarse grain production prospects are up 2.0 million tons this month to 37.4 million, as an early onset of the monsoon has helped expand area and boosted yield prospects. India’s corn production is projected up 1.0 million tons this month to 18.5 million, with increased expected yields. Increased use of high-yielding hybrids and timely planting are boosting yield prospects. India’s millet production projection also increased 1.0 million tons this month, forecast to reach 10.5 million. A year-to-year area increase is expected, and with good planting conditions, average yields are expected to nearly reach year-ago levels.
Canada’s coarse grain production in 2008/09 is projected down 1.3 million tons to 23.7 million, due to lower-than-expected reported area. Barley and oats production each were reduced 0.5 million tons, and corn was shaved 0.3 million tons. Corn area also was reduced this month for Russia and Ukraine. According to official planting progress reports, area is increasing less than previously expected. Moreover, in Russia, shortages of good hybrid corn seed are reported.
Russia’s 2008/09 corn production is projected down 1.0 million tons to 5.8 million, while Ukraine is down 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million. In Argentina, planting reports indicate a larger increase in barley area, as wheat is less attractive due to government intervention on export registrations. Barley production is up 0.4 million tons this month to 2.0 million. Area planted to oats in Australia is up this month, boosting production 0.2 million tons to 1.5 million tons. China’s preliminary summer-crop harvest reports support a 0.3-million-ton increase in barley production to 3.5 million tons.
