Director of the Institute of Spatial Analysisand Planning in Areas of Intensive Agriculture (ISPA),
University of Vechta, Germany
Poultry meat production has shown a remarkabledevelopment over the last decades. The production volume increased from 15mill. t to 83 mill. t or by 453 % between 1970 and 2005.
In the 1990s, developing countries surpasseddeveloped countries in their production volume. This has had far reachingimpacts on the trade patterns as countries which were of minor importance inproduction and trade one or two decades ago, are now ranked among the toppoultry meat producing or exporting countries. It can be expected that the pastdynamics will continue during the next decade because of a continuous increaseof the per capita consumption, in particular in developing countries. In thispaper:
· thetime-spatial dynamics of poultry meat production and trade will be analysed,
· thecentres of production as well as the leading exporting and importing countrieswill be identified,
· aprojection for the development of production and trade will be presented.
Introduction: the setting
The dynamic development of poultry meatproduction between 1970 and 2005 can be seen from the data in Table 1. No other animal product shows a comparable growth rate.
The export share of chicken meat, which in 2005contributed 85 % to the total production volume of poultry meat, reached 15.5%, that of turkey meat 18.1 %. In an increasing number of countries the percapita consumption of poultry meat is higher than that of red meat.
It is worth mentioning that developing countrieswere able to increase their share of global poultry meat production from 26 %to 53 % between 1970 and 2005. Even though this is mainly due to the dramaticincrease of the production volume in China and Brazil, several other developingcountries also showed considerable absolute and relative growth rates in theanalysed time period. One of the advantages of poultry meat besides its imageas a low calorie meal is the fact that it can also be consumed in countrieswhich do not permit the consumption of pig meat because of religious reasons.
Thetime-spatial dynamics of poultry meat production
Between 1970 and 2005, global poultry meatproduction increased from 15.1 to 83.2 mill. t. Very high absolute and relativegrowth rates can be observed since the mid-1980s. The already mentioned spatialshift in the production centres is mirrored in the ranking of the leadingchicken meat producing countries (Figure1, Table 2). Whereas in 1970 European and North American countries stilldominated chicken meat production, only China and Brazil ranked as numbersthree and ten, the situation was completely different in 2005. Of the tenleading countries only three were still located in Europe, here Russia isincluded, but five were developing countries. Mexico, India, and Indonesiawhich were not to be found among the top ten producing countries in 1970,ranked as numbers four to six in 2005.
The growth rates in turkey meat production arealmost as high as those in chicken meat. But considerable differences in thespatial pattern can be observed (Figure2, Table 3). In turkey meatproduction, developed countries are still in a dominating position. The reasonfor this imbalance is the fact that the consumption of turkey meat has notradition in several regions, for example in South and East Asia. It is worthmentioning that the USA are still in a leading position but that they lostconsiderable market shares to European countries, in particular France,Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. These four countries contributed about30 % to the global production volume in 2005. The high growth rates which canbe observed in Europe in the 1990s are also a result of the BSE crisis. Manyconsumers switched from beef to turkey meat. In the USA, production has beeneither stagnating or even decreasing since the beginning of this decade. It canbe expected that the per capita consumption of turkey meat will furtherdecrease and that the recent production volume of 2.4 to 2.5 mill. t can onlybe maintained because of a growing population. In Europe, too, growth rateswill not remain on the high level of the 1990s as the production cost forbroilers with a higher slaughter weight, a consequence of the preference of cutup parts and convenience products, are in the meantime comparable to that ofturkeys.
Thetime-spatial dynamics of poultry meat trade
The second step of this analysis will deal withthe development and recent patterns of poultry meat trade.
The data in Table4 show that between 1970 and 2005 thecontribution of the continents to poultry meat exports changed considerably.Whereas in 1970 European countries contributed almost 84 % to the global exportvolume, their share was only 33.3 % in 2005. In the same time period, the shareof North and South American countries increased continuously. Asian countries werenot able to maintain the share which they had reached in 1990. Two reasons canbe named for this decrease, one is the increasing domestic consumption, theother the impacts of the Avian Influenza outbreaks which led to a collapse ofpoultry meat exports in several countries.
The export volume of chicken meat increased fromless 500,000 t in 1970 to 8.4 mill. t in 2005 (Table 5). This aloneshows that poultry meat has become an attractive meal in a growing number ofcountries. The dominating role of European countries becomes obvious from thefact that besides the USA only China was ranked among the top ten exportingcountries. The Netherlands alone contributed 42 % to the global export volume.In 2005, there were still seven European countries among the ten leadingexporting countries, but now Brazil and the USA ranked as numbers one and two.Together they exported 62 % of the poultry meat which reached the world market.It can be expected that Brazil will be able to remain on rank one and that thegap in the export volume will become wider. This will have to be dealt with ina later paragraph.
The export volume of turkey meat increased fromabout 18,000 t in 1970 to 937,999 t in 2005 (Table 6). Thisdevelopment reflects the growing buying power of a constantly expanding middleclass and the ability of the leading turkey meat exporting countries to developnew markets. In 1970, the USA were the only exporting country with aconsiderable export volume, all other countries were of minor importance. TheUSA were not able, however, to maintain this dominating position, but lostmarket shares to a number of European countries and to Brazil. The fact thatsix of the ten leading countries in turkey meat exports are EU member statesmirrors the importance of trade with this meat type in Europe.
The data in Table7 show that the global import volumeof chicken meat increased from only 450.000 t in 1970 to over 8.2 mill. t in2005. The regional concentration, i. e. the contribution of the ten leadingimporting countries to global imports, decreased considerably in the analysedtime period which confirms the statement that chicken meat has become animportant basic food in many countries. In 1970, Germany was the dominatingchicken meat importing country with a share of almost 48 %. The rapid increasein the per capita consumption could not be met with the also increasingdomestic production, so that large amounts had to be imported.
In 2005, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Japanimported over 36 % of the chicken meat which reached the world market. It isworth mentioning that three European countries which are also ranked among thetop ten exporting countries are also to be found among the leading importingcountries. For the Netherlands the reason is the fact that the economic impactsof the outbreak of the Avian Influenza can still be felt. Germany, the UnitedKingdom, and the Netherlands import large amounts of breast filets from Braziland Thailand. Mexico has become, not at least because of the NAFTA membership,one of the leading chicken and turkey meat importing countries.
The import volume of turkey meat grew evenfaster in the analysed time period than that of chicken meat as can be seenfrom Table 8. Whereas in 1970 less than 14,000 t were imported, in 2005, thevolume had increased to over 955,000 t. Here, too, the regional concentrationdecreased, even though the ten leading countries still have a share of 62 % ofthe global import volume. In 1970, Germany was in an absolutely dominatingposition because of the wide gap between consumption and domestic production,in 2005, Mexico had become the top importing country, followed by Russia andGermany. The four leading countries imported 43 % of all turkey meat thatreached the world market. Their buying behaviour is of utmost importance forthe price development.
Traderelations of leading poultry meat exporting and importing countries
In the next step the existing trade relationswill be analysed in more detail. Brazil became the leading chicken meatexporting country in 2005 after the USA had for many years been in thisposition. In Table 9 the main importing countries of thetwo leading exporting countries are compared.
The comparison shows that Brazil is exportingmore high value products than the USA as the average value per tonne is 1,200 $compared to only 850 $ for the USA. This is mainly due to the high share ofbreast filets which are exported to Japan and EU member states. About 55 % ofthe US exports go to the three leading countries which mainly import low valueproducts. On the other hand, Canada is mainly importing value added products.Japan and Saudi Arabia, the two top importing countries of Brazilian exports,have a share of only 28 % of the export volume but of 34 % of the export value.Quite obviously Brazil is also exporting products to Russia with a higher valuethan the USA.
Almost two thirds of the turkey meat, which isexported by the USA, goes to Mexico, all other countries are of minorimportance (Table 10). High value products are mainlyexported to Canada. Turkey meat exports of France are much more evenlydistributed. Therefore, the dependence on the market development in one of theleading importing countries is much lower. Belgium, Germany, and Spain importhigh value products, in contrast to Russia.
A comparison of the trade flows of chicken andturkey meat shows that the regional concentration in very high for both meattypes. The leading countries contribute very high amounts to the total exportvolume. The degree of the regional concentration is higher in the USA than inBrazil and France. It can also be seen from the data that Brazil and France areexporting more high value products than the USA.
As can be seen from the data in Table 11, China is importing chicken meat mainly from the two leadingexporting countries. In 2005, the USA and Brazil contributed 84 % to China'simports. A similar situation can be observed for Russia, here the USA andBrazil had a market share of 87 %. China, as well as Russia, is mainlyimporting low value products.
As Mexico is importing turkey meat almostcompletely from the USA, the trade patterns for Russia and Germany are comparedin Table 12. Russia imports about 70 % of the turkey meat from Germany andFrance. Here, similar to chicken meat imports, low value products aredominating. Germany is importing turkey meat almost completely from other EUmember states. France, Poland, and Italy have a market share of about 50 %. Incontrast to Russia, German imports are almost exclusively high value products.This can be seen from the fact that the average value of Russian imports isonly 611 $/t whereas the average value of German imports is as high as 2,763$/t. Similar to the trade flows in chicken meat, the regional concentration inturkey meat trade is also very high. The leading two or three countries havevery high market shares.
Perspectives for poultry meat production andtrade until 2015
In a third step, this analysis will presentperspectives for the development of poultry meat production and trade until2015.
It can be assumed that global meat productionwill increase by 50 mill. t or 19.2 % between 2006 and 2015. As can be seenfrom the data in Table 13, 20 mill. twill be poultry meat, 18 mill. t pigmeat, and 12 mill. t beef. Poultry meatshows the highest relative increase with 23.2 %.
This very global statement can be differentiatedon a regional level. Table 14 summarises the expected development for the leadingdeveloped and developing countries.
As can be seen from the data in Table 14, the highest absolute growth rates are expected for the USA,Brazil, China, Russia, India, Thailand, Turkey, and Mexico. The highestrelative growth rates show Turkey, Thailand, Russia, and India; the lowest theEU, Nigeria and New Zealand. Only in Japan, the production volume will decreasein the analysed time period. Generally speaking, growth rates in most of thedeveloping countries are higher than in developed countries.
It is also of interest to analyse thedevelopment of poultry meat exports and imports of the leading countries. Basedon the projections of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), theexpected developments are summarised in Tables15 and 16.
Table 15shows that the USDA expects an increase of the export volume by 1.1 mill. tbetween 2006 and 2015. The contribution of Brazil will be 525,000 t, of the USA425,000 t, and of Thailand 100,000 t. Only a minor increase of the exportvolume is projected for the EU. The reason is the expected increase of the percapita consumption, especially in the new member states.
China will increase its imports in the analysedtime period between 2006 and 2015 by 420,000 t, Mexico by 210,000 t, and SaudiArabia by 130,000 t (Table 16). In China, the projected increase ofthe production volume by 2.1 mill. t will not be able to meet the higherconsumption which is a result of the growing buying power of the middle class,therefore, imports will increase. In the Near East, the fast growingpopulation, for which Saudi Arabia is only one example, will make higherimports necessary; the same is true for Mexico. Only a minor increase ofpoultry meat imports is expected for the EU and Japan. Russia will be ablereduce the imports by about 100,000 t. It is expected that the domesticproduction will be expanded considerably over the next decade.
Summary and perspectives
The preceding analysis could show the remarkabledynamics of poultry meat production in the past decades. No other animalproduct has shown a comparable increase of the production volume. Quiteobviously, poultry meat has become a affordable food in many countries. It isworth mentioning that the highest growth rates occurred in developingcountries. They surpassed developed countries in the 1990s and contributed 53 %to the global production volume in 2005. In contrast to chicken meat, turkeymeat is still mainly produced in a comparatively small number of developed countries.Parallel to the increasing production volume, trade flows changed, as in agrowing number of countries domestic production could not meet the demand.Developing countries could also gain higher market shares in chicken meatexports and imports, Brazil is now the leading exporting country, followed bythe USA. In turkey meat trade, developed countries are still dominating.
It can be expected that in the next decade thedynamics in production and trade will continue. The projected increase in theproduction volume by 20 mill. t will be mainly generated in developingcountries. Here, the growing per capita consumption will be the main steeringfactor. South and East Asian as well as Latin American countries will play animportant role in this development.
The projected increase in production and tradewill, however, not be realised if the dissemination of the Avian Influenzavirus cannot be stopped. New outbreaks in Europe or North America wouldpresumably lead to an abrupt collapse of poultry meat trade and because of arapidly decreasing per capita consumption also have far reaching impacts onproduction.
It can also be expected that the recent boom ofbio-energy production will also have impacts on the poultry industry. Becauseof the favourable feed conversion rates, the broiler industry will, however,not suffer as much from the increasing feed costs as turkey, pig, and beefproduction. It could easily happen that because of increasing feed costs thebroiler industry will be able to gain higher market shares and strengthen itsposition in the global meat sector.
USDA, Office of the Chief Economist (2007): USDA Agricultural Projectionsto 2016. Washington,
Windhorst, H.-W. (2007): Bio-energy production - a threat to the globalegg industry? In: World´s Poultry Science Journal 63, no. 3. (in print).