Between 1970 and 2006, poultry meat production increased from 15 mill. t to over 85 mill. t or by 461 %. Cattle and pig meat production grew much slower even though the absolute increase of the production volume of pig meat was similar to that of poultry meat (Table 1).
The remarkable dynamics are due to the fact that there are hardly any religious taboos against the consumption of poultry meat, the production cost is comparatively low because of a high feed conversion rate, at least for broiler meat, and that this meat type has become an attractive meal not only in developed but also in developing countries. Poultry meat can be consumed in various forms, from whole birds to convenience products, and is easy to prepare.
The main objectives of this paper are:
- to analyse the time-spatial dynamics of poultry meat production by meat type,
- to show how the contribution of developed and developing countries and the continents changed over the past decades,
- to identify the centres of poultry meat production by meat type and to analyse the spatial shifts,
- to show in which countries the highest increase of chicken and turkey meat occurred between 1990 and 2006.
- To present perspectives for the development of poultry meat production until 2016.
The development of global poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006
In a first step, this paper will deal with the development of poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006. First, the increase of the production volume will be analysed by meat type and then the changing contribution of developed as well as developing countries and of the single continents to global poultry meat production.
From the data in Table 2 one can easily see that chicken meat has been dominating poultry meat production since 1970. Even though the share has slightly decreased, almost 86 % of the total production volume was contributed by this meat type in 2006. In the 1990s, turkey meat contributed 9 %; from then on it lost market shares in spite of an increasing production volume. This is due to the rapid increase of duck and goose meat production between 1990 and 2006. As can be seen from the data, the volume of duck meat tripled and that of goose meat was more than four times as high as in 1990.
A remarkable shift of poultry meat production from developed to developing countries occurred in the analysed time period. The only exception is turkey meat. Even in 2006, developed countries contributed almost 90 % to global production. Quite obviously, this meat type has no tradition in most of the developing countries. One reason for the dominance of developed countries may also be the comparatively high price of turkey meat compared to chicken meat.
In 1970, over 65 % of the chicken meat was produced in developed countries. In the early 1990s developing countries surpassed developed countries in the production volume, and in 2006, their share was almost 59 %. About two thirds of duck and goose meat were produced in developing countries as early as 1970. In the following decades, their share increased continuously. In 2006, they dominated these meat types with a contribution of more than 86 % to duck meat and 97 % to goose and guinea fowl meat production.
In Table 4, the development of global poultry meat production is differentiated by meat type and continents. In the following chapter, this development will be analysed in detail. Here, only some general remarks will be added. In 1970, North America showed the highest production volume, followed by Europe and Asia. Only ten year later, Asia had surpassed both continents. From then on, Asia has strengthened this leading position. In the late 1990s, Latin America ranked third behind Asia and North America. In the following years, the gap between the production volume in Latin America and Europe widened considerably because of the high growth rates in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. The dynamics in Latin America is remarkable with an increase of the production volume by 1,262 % in the analysed time period. As a consequence of the already high per capita consumption, growth rates in Europe and North America were lower than in the other continents and the global average.
The time-spatial dynamics of poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006
In a second step, the time-spatial dynamics of poultry meat production will be analysed in detail by meat types. The analysis will be carried out on two spatial levels, continents and individual countries. This will make it possible not only to describe the spatial shifts between continents but also to identify those countries which caused the new spatial pattern of production.
Figure 1 summarises the changing contribution of the continents to global poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006. In 1970, North America contributed one-third to the global production volume, followed by Europe and Asia. In 1980, these three continents had an almost identical share. Ten years later, Asia had reached an unrivalled leading position, Europe only ranked third. From then on, the ranking has been fairly stable. Asia could gain some percentage points, Europe and North America lost market shares whereas the main winner between 1990 and 2006 was Latin America. It surpassed Europe in the 1990s and it can be expected that the gap will become wider because of much lower growth rates in most of the European compared to Latin American countries.
In Table 5, the contribution of the continents to global poultry meat production and the share of the global population are compared. One can easily see that the contribution of North America, Latin America and Europe to global poultry meat production is much higher than their share of the global population. On the other hand, the contribution of Africa and Asia is much lower than their population share. This discrepancy is as well a result of the great differences in per capita consumption as of the export-oriented production in North and Latin America. Whereas in Asia only 7.6 kg of poultry meat are produced per inhabitant, the value is as high as 63.5 kg in North America, 35.8 kg in Latin America, and 18.0 kg in Europe.
In order to better understand the spatial shift in poultry meat production, one has to go to the country level. This makes it possible to identify new growth centres and countries which lost market shares. In Table 6, the ten leading countries in poultry meat production are listed for 1970, 1990 and 2006. One can easily see that the regional concentration, i. e. the contribution of the ten countries to the global production volume, did not change very much in the analysed time period. Nevertheless, the ranking of the countries and their share of the production volume show a characteristic dynamics.
In 1970, the USA dominated global poultry meat production with a share of 30.6 %, followed by the USSR and China. Only two of the leading countries, China and Brazil, were developing countries. They contributed 7.7 % to the global production volume. Twenty years later, the USA still were in a leading position, China had surpassed the USSR and ranked number 2. Brazil, number 10 in 1970, showed a dramatic increase of its production volume and reached rank 4, Mexico replaced Canada. In 2006, the composition of the ten leading countries and the ranking was completely different from 1990. Five of the ten leading countries were developing countries. Mexico climbed from rank 10 to rank 4, India and Indonesia which were not to be found among the ten leading countries in 1990, ranked as number 5 and 9. They replaced Spain and Italy. In 2006, only three European countries, the United Kingdom, France and Russia, were left among the top poultry meat producing countries. Together, they contributed 5.5 % to the global production volume. The three leading countries had a share of 51.3 %. This documents the dramatic regional concentration process between 1990 and 2006. It can be expected that because of the high growth rates in China and Brazil the contribution of these two countries and the USA to global poultry meat production will further increase.
The second part of this chapter will deal in more detail with the time-spatial dynamics which can be observed in the production of chicken, turkey, duck, goose and guinea fowl meat.
Figure 2 shows the changing contribution of the continents to chicken meat production between 1970 and 2006. It is not surprising that because of the dominating role of this meat type the situation is similar to that of total poultry meat production. In 1970, North America was in a leading position, followed by Europe and Asia, the share of Latin America was still comparatively low. Ten years later, Asia had surpassed the other two continents and North America ranked only as number 3. Between 1990 and 2000, Latin America surpassed Europe because of extremely high growth rates in Brazil as will be shown later. In the following sixteen years, North America and Europe lost market shares; the contribution of Asia remained fairly stable whereas Latin America could further strengthen its position. It is worth mentioning that Europe lost almost half of its shares of global chicken meat production between 1970 and 2006, North America one fourth. On the other hand, Latin America more than doubled its contribution to the global production volume in the analysed time period.
Table 7 shows the changes in composition and ranking of the ten leading countries in chicken meat production between 1970 and 2006. The regional concentration decreased between 1970 and 1990 but has remained on the same level since then. In 1970 and 1990, the USA dominated chicken meat production because of a very high per capita consumption. An important role played the cholesterol discussion. The leading broiler companies were not only able to convince the consumers that the white broiler meat was a low fat diet and therefore good for their health but they were also very innovative in the creation of new meals. Chicken meat occupied a pioneer role in the development of convenience products. This development reached Europe about a decade later. In addition to that, the vertically integrated companies were able to offer a product which was much cheaper than beef or pork. Besides a very favourable feed conversion rate, the optimal organisation of the supply chains saved costs.
In 2006, three developing countries, India, Indonesia, and Argentina, had replaced three European countries, France, Italy, and Spain. Only Russia and the United Kingdom were able to hold a position among the top chicken meat producing countries, but their contribution to the global production volume was as low as 3.9 %. On the other hand, the four Asian countries which ranked among the top ten producing countries, contributed 20.9 % to global chicken meat production, the three Latin American countries 16.5 %. The figures document as well the spatial shift from developed to developing countries as the new role that Asia and Latin America are playing in chicken meat production. It can be expected that these two continents will be able to strengthen their position in the next decade whereas Europe and North America will lose shares.
Development and spatial patterns of turkey meat production differ completely from chicken meat production. It was already mentioned (see Table 3) that even in 2006 about 89 % of turkey meat was produced in developed countries.
Figure 3 shows the changing contribution of the continents to the global production volume. One can easily see that turkey meat production is concentrated in North America and Europe. Latin America could increase its production volume considerably since 1990; the other continents are of minor importance. It is worth mentioning that turkey meat production in European countries grew considerably between 1990 and 2000. The reason was the rapidly decreasing consumption of beef after the first outbreaks of BSE (mad cow disease) in the United Kingdom and later in several other European countries. Many consumers switched to turkey meat. This initiated a fast expansion of the production capacities in several countries, in particular in Germany and France. Several years later, when the BSE crisis lost in importance, many consumers switched back to beef. The existing overcapacity and large amounts of turkey meat in cold storage facilities resulted in severe economic problems not only for the growers but also for the integrators. Between 2000 and 2006, turkey meat production in Europe decreased by almost 330,000 t or 16 % (see Table 4). In addition to that, consumers refrained from eating poultry meat because of the Avian Influenza outbreaks in Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Germany. It was not before 2007 that the economic situation of the turkey industry in Central Europe began to stabilise.
A more detailed analysis on the country level will be able to document the time-spatial dynamics in turkey meat production. From the data in Table 8 one can see that the regional concentration has not changed very much in the analysed time period. The ten leading countries contribute more than 90 % to the global production volume, the three leading countries between 78 % (1970) and 71.3 % (2006). Although they lost some percentage points, the USA are still dominating global turkey meat production. In 1970, six of the top ten producing countries were located in Europe, two of them in Eastern Europe. Twenty years later, the composition and the ranking had changed considerably. Mexico, Yugoslavia, and Poland had been replaced by Brazil, Hungary, and Argentina. Because of a dramatic increase in the production volume, France ranked number 2 behind the USA, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom. In 2006, the composition of the ten leading countries was almost the same as in 1990, only Argentina had been replaced by Chile. However, the ranking had changed again. Because of a remarkable expansion of the production volume, Germany ranked in third place. The same is true for Brazil, where the production volume was four times higher in 2006 than in 1990.
A closer look at the development between 1990 and 2006 (Figure 4) reveals, however, that the production volume in some European countries fluctuated considerably. In France, turkey meat production reached its peak in 2001 with almost 747,000 t. In the following years it decreased continuously and was as low as 501,000 t in 2006. Within only five years, France lost almost one third of its production volume. A similar development can be observed in Italy. Between 2002 and 2006, turkey meat production decreased from 440,000 t to 274,000 t or by 38 %. Both countries had expanded their production because of a growing demand on the European poultry meat market. The German turkey industry was also hit by the decreasing prices, but the fluctuations in the production volume were only moderate. Between 2004 and 2006, turkey meat production decreased from 391,000 t to 376,000 t or by only 4 %.
In contrast to chicken meat production, the spatial pattern of turkey meat production has not changed very much in the analysed time period. North America was and still is the leading production centre, with the USA in an absolutely dominating position. About 30 % of the global production volume is concentrated in Europe, 6.2 % in Latin America. The remaining three continents contribute less than 5 % to global turkey meat production. Only in Israel production and consumption of turkey meat have a long tradition.
The contribution of duck meat to global poultry meat production increased from 3.3 % in 1970 to 4.5 % in 2006 (see Table 2), the production volume from 0.5 mill. t to 3.8 mill. t. Figure 5 shows that duck meat production was and still is concentrated in Asia and Europe with Asia in an absolutely dominating position. After two decades of moderate growth, the production volume almost exploded between 1990 and 2000. As will be shown later, this rapid expansion is mainly due to the development of duck meat production in China. The regional concentration is extremely high compared to chicken and turkey meat production. In 2006, Asia contributed almost 84 % to the global production volume, Europe 11%, the remaining continents about 5 %.
A more detailed analysis on the country level will help to better understand the time-spatial dynamics. From the data in Table 9 one can easily see that in 1970 five Asian and four European countries occupied nine of the ten top positions in duck meat production. Twenty years later, Germany and Bangladesh had been replaced by Egypt and India. In 2006, only two European countries, France and the United Kingdom, were left among the top ten producing countries. Seven countries were located in Asia with China in an absolutely dominating position, the Republic of Korea and Myanmar replaced Hungary and Egypt. It is worth mentioning that France was able to strengthen its second position in the analysed time period even though it lost some percentage points. China and France contributed over 75 % to the global production volume in 2006; in 1970, it had only been 57 %. This again documents the dramatic spatial shift and regional concentration process. Chinese duck meat production increased by more than 2 mill. t between 1990 and 2006 (see also Figure 7). The rapid expansion is a result of the new economic policy under Deng Xiaoping who initiated a fast increase of agricultural and industrial production. Parallel developments can be observed in pork and goose meat production.
Goose meat [In the FAO statistics, goose meat always includes guinea fowl meat. It is not possible, however, to separate both meat types.] contributed only 1.5 % to global poultry meat production until 1990, from then on its share increased and reached 3 % in 2006. Similar to duck meat production, the increase in the production volume was comparatively low until 1990, in the following decade the production volume increased by 1.4 mill. t and another 0.6 mill. t until 2006.
Figure 6 shows the dramatic regional concentration process and spatial shift in the analysed time period. In 1970, Asia contributed 57.5 % to the global production volume, Europe 32.4 %. In the following decade, Asia strengthened its leading position whereas Europe lost about 10 percentage points. The rapid increase of goose meat production since 1990 accelerated the regional concentration process. In 2006, almost 95 % of global goose meat production was concentrated in Asian countries. The share of European countries was as low as 2.9 %, not much higher than the contribution of Africa with 2.2 %. It will be necessary to go to the country level to better understand this time-spatial dynamics.
A closer look at the data in Table 10 reveals as well the remarkable changes in the composition and ranking of the ten leading goose meat producing countries as the extremely high regional concentration. In 1970, almost 75 % of the global production volume was contributed by the three leading countries, 54 % by China alone. In 1990, the three countries which produced more than 10,000 t of goose meat, had a share of more than 90 % of the global production volume; China alone contributed almost 77 %. Between 1990 and 2006, goose meat production in China increased by 1.9 mill. t (see also Figure 8). The result was that the relative share of all other countries became more or less negligible, and this in spite of a growing production in Egypt, Madagascar, and Italy. It is worth mentioning that goose meat production fluctuated especially in European countries. France and Germany which ranked among the top ten countries in 1970 and 1990 were no longer to be found in a leading position. For Italy, no goose meat production was documented before 2004 in the FAO database; in 2006 it ranked as number 4. Goose meat always played a major role in Eastern Europe. In 1970 and in 2006, four of the top ten goose meat producing countries were located in this part of Europe.
This chapter will finally deal with the question which countries showed the highest increase of chicken and turkey meat production between 1990 and 2006. From the data in Table 11 one can see that the ten countries with the highest increase of chicken meat production contributed more than 76 % to the global growth. The five leading countries had a share of exactly 66.6 %. It is interesting that seven of the ten countries with the highest increase were developing countries. This explains the documented shift of chicken meat production from developed to developing countries and nourishes the expectation that the share of developing countries will further increase.
The ten countries with the highest increase in turkey meat production contributed almost 96 % to the global expansion of the production volume. In contrast to chicken meat, developed countries had by far the highest share, for only four of the top ten countries were developing countries. The USA and Germany alone contributed 71.2 % to the global increase of 2 mill. t. These data explain why even in 2006 almost 90 % of the global turkey meat production was concentrated in developed countries. It can be expected that this spatial pattern will remain fairly stable over the next decade.
The main results of the first two steps of the analysis can be summarised as follows:
• The dynamic development of poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006 is unique. No other branch of animal production shows comparable growth rates.
• In the 1990s, developing countries surpassed developed countries in chicken meat production whereas in turkey meat production developed countries are still dominating.
• The spatial patterns of poultry meat production differ considerably for the single meat types.
• In chicken meat production, Asia was able to gain shares but Latin American countries, in particular Brazil, were able to strengthen their position whereas North America and Europe lost shares.
• In turkey meat production, North America is still in a dominating position. Europe could gain shares, but was not able to stabilise to position of 2000 because of the outbreaks of Avian Influenza and an oversupply in the turkey meat market.
• Asia is in absolutely dominating position in duck as well as goose and guinea fowl meat production. The rapid expansion of the production volume in China in the 1990s led to an extremely high and unparalleled regional concentration.
• The expansion of chicken and turkey meat production between 1990 and 2006 was concentrated to a high degree in a comparatively small number of countries. Whereas developing countries contributed most to the increase in the production volume of chicken meat, developed countries dominated the growth in turkey meat production. This situation will be decisive for the future development of the spatial pattern.
Perspectives for the development of poultry meat production until 2016
In a final step, a short perspective for the development of poultry meat production until 2016 will be given. This projection is based on the most recent update of the OECD.
The data in Table 12 differ from other data in this paper as the OECD gives production figures for poultry meat on the ready to cook basis. Nevertheless, the basic trends become obvious. The OECD expects that global poultry meat production will increase from 81.9 to 98.5 mill. t or 20.3 % between 2006 and 2016. The highest absolute growth is projected for Brazil and China with 2.5 mill. t each, India with 1.7 mill. t and the USA with 1.6 mill. t. The highest relative growth rates are expected for India (85 %) and Russia (62.5 %). The four countries with the highest absolute increase will contribute exactly 50 % to the total growth of global poultry meat production. Three of them, China, Brazil, and India, are developing countries. Quite obviously, developing countries will also in the next decade gain further shares of global poultry meat production. The projected development will result in a further regional concentration. The USA, China, Brazil, and India will contribute 53 % to the global production volume in 2016, the EU (27) only about 12 %. Asia will, similar to egg and pork production, strengthen its position as the leading centre whereas Europe will lose shares. Regarding the production volume, the gap between Europe and North as well as Latin America will become wider.
Summary
The preceding analysis could show that the dynamic development of poultry meat production between 1970 and 2006 had far reaching impacts on the spatial pattern. In the 1990s, developing countries surpassed developed countries in the production volume of chicken meat. Asia became the leading continent; Latin America could strengthen its position whereas the contribution of North America and Europe to the global production volume decreased. Turkey meat production is still mainly produced in North America and Europe. All other continents only play a minor role. Duck, goose and guinea fowl meat production is dominated by Asian countries, especially China.
It can be expected that the time-spatial dynamics will continue also in the next decade. Poultry meat production will grow faster in developing than in developed countries and they will gain in importance. The only exception is turkey meat, here, the dominating role of developed countries will be unrivalled. The regional concentration process will go on and Asia will strengthen its position as the leading centre of poultry meat production.
References
- FAO database (www.fao.org)
- Gale, F. a. K. Huang: Demand for Food Quantity and Quality in China. (= Economic Research Report 32). USDA: Economic Research Service. Washington, D.C. 2007.
- OECD Statistics (www.oecd.org).
- United States Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist (ed.): USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016. Washington, D. C. 2007. (www.usda.gov).
- UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. (http://esa.un.org).
Hans-Wilhelm WINDHORST
Director of the Institute of Spatial Analysis and Planning in Areas of Intensive Agriculture (ISPA),
University of Vechta, Germany
